Paul Szydelko
Uncertainty about 2025 hovers over the Las Vegas hospitality and gaming sectors after what in many respects was a robust 2024.
A report from the economic team at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas said a sluggish national economy, the result of the Fed's efforts to combat inflation and avert a recession, may impede the city's steady recovery from the pandemic.
There were several record-breaking months for statewide gaming revenue this year, and the total number of passengers through Harry Reid Airport in 2024 is expected to be an all-time high. Final numbers won't be available for another month.
"In 2025, we finally have a chance for growth beyond where we were prepandemic," said Alan Feldman, a casino industry veteran who is a distinguished fellow in responsible gaming for the International Gaming Institute at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, in an interview with Travel Weekly in November.
"I'm hopeful to see convention [attendance] grow even more, and that sort of automatically raises the international traffic," Feldman said. "It would be fabulous if we could open up a couple of additional [Europe and Asian direct air] markets."
An early indicator of both convention and international traffic will come in January.
"What I'm really going to be interested in is how many people come to CES (the technology trade show Jan. 7 to 10)," Feldman said. "That's going to be a very early-in-the-year barometer of what the rest of the year might look like. Once things begin to roll, then we can start seeing more high-value customers coming at times like Chinese New Year (Jan. 29 to Feb. 5)" and the men's and women's NCAA basketball tournaments in March."
What's new in 2025
No high-profile resort openings are planned for the Strip or downtown in 2025. The rebranding of the shuttered Mirage into the Hard Rock Las Vegas, its guitar-shaped room tower to rise where the storied volcano once stood, continues to be on track for 2027. Construction of a $1.75 billion, fixed-roof, 33,000-capacity baseball stadium where the Tropicana once stood realistically must begin in the spring for the A's to begin play there in 2028.
Among the attractions set to open in 2025 is Grand Prix Plaza, a 39-acre complex that will feature Formula 1 racing-inspired karting, an interactive and educational exhibition, a retail store and three new private event spaces.
Expected in time for Halloween is Universal Horror Unleashed, Universal Destination & Experience's first year-round horror experience, at Area15.
Macroeconomics at play
But the report published in November by the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV said a softening national economy may cause things to slow down for Las Vegas in the coming year and beyond.
The number of visitors, gaming revenue and hotel occupancy rates in the region are projected to fall over the next two years, the report said. Specifically, southern Nevada's visitor traffic may decrease by 5.8% in 2025 and 6.9% in 2026. Decreases in gross gaming revenue of 5.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026 are anticipated.
The southern Nevada economy will experience a slow contraction in 2025 and 2026, Stephen Miller, the center's director of research, told CDC Gaming. And that's assuming there will be no new wave of coronavirus and no financial crisis leading to a recession. The prediction also assumes a resolution of the war in Ukraine and limited global reach from the Israeli-Hamas conflict.
Miller, who doesn't see a recession for the U.S. or southern Nevada on the horizon, says the national economy traditionally plays an outsized role in southern Nevada's economic outlook.