At the USTOA's annual conference last month in Marco Island, Fla., interim tours editor Tom Stieghorst sat down with the organization's president, Terry Dale, to get his take on the economic outlook for 2025, the DOT's proposed airline consumer-protection rules and USTOA's policy goals.
Terry Dale
Q: What economic indicators do you think are most determinative for the tours sector?
A: A lot of it is costs. What is the cost going to be to assemble this travel experience? I think there's a certain amount of confidence that the consumer is willing to invest in the travel experience. I'm not going to say at any price point. But within reason. They know what inflation has been like and what it potentially will be like. So there's a certain amount of optimism that the consumer is still sticking with it. The cost is always an indicator.
Q: Are there other indicators that stand out?
A: We can't underestimate the geopolitical landscape. [But] While it is so unsettled, I think there's consumer resilience and the [industry's] ability to adapt: if things are too unsettled in the Middle East, we have the ability to shift to some other location. I just heard numbers from Jordan, which is right in the heart of everything that's going on, and yet from the U.S. the numbers are solid. They haven't slipped. From several members I spoke to at our luncheon, Jordan is still selling. So I think it speaks volumes in the consumer's confidence that if you're working with a professional tour operator or advisor there's a certain trust and a certain amount of confidence.
Q: So what's the industry outlook?
A: I think we see that consumer confidence reflected in sales for next year. Sales are, barring no crazy event, going to be really strong. It's going to be really healthy again -- robust -- next year. If the consumer says, "I want this tour operator and they're on the high end of pricing," with a travel advisor, there are options at a lower price point that may fit better into their budget. They're not canceling travel by any means, but they may adjust to find a lower price.
Q: What's on the federal policy agenda for USTOA?
A: First of all we look to align with anything that's sustainability-positive. And in all honesty, there's not a lot from a regulatory or legislative perspective. Still, that's a priority for us.
And then it's really trying to minimize what [regulation] comes out of the Department of Transportation. Which we have not been successful at. I think that body has the potential -- and has done in the past -- to harm how we operate as businesses. We just had a face-to-face meeting this past September with the three architects of this rulemaking that is all around ancillary fees and refunds, and so on. Those are really tough for our members because the airline has the deposit and yet we as the ticket seller are expected to give the consumer their deposit. It's the airline that has the money. But the regulation says it's the [responsibility of the] ticket seller. So we have to rely on the airline to get to us the money.
Q: There is a new transportation secretary on the horizon; former Wisconsin congressman Sean Duffy is the nominee. Is there hope that the rules might be improved?
A: The last Trump administration early on said to regulators, whether the Department of Labor or the Department of Transportation or so on, that if you are going to propose a new rule you have to eliminate two rules existing on the books. If you're a business, that's good news because it's a couple [of rules] that are off the books. So during [Trump's first] administration, while DOT was still active, it was not nearly as active as during a Democratic administration.