Normalization. Moderation. Anticipation. Expectation.
If 2024 was the year that the big buzzword "revenge travel" bit the dust, what does that mean for 2025? We wonder whether this year will be the year that travel bookings and prices drop, or whether consumers' wanderlust continues unabated.
The abundant use of the word "normalization" caught our attention, in part because, sometimes, it's hard to know what this means. Since even a return to prepandemic levels -- of revenue, sales, volume or mindset -- is not really an apples-to-apples comparison any longer because of price increases and new types of products.
But even if there's some travel moderation -- and inflation, high prices and geopolitical concerns are front and center going into the new year -- advisor groups still expect to see enthusiasm for travel in 2025.
One "ation" word left out of the lead: administration. It is a big question mark at this point how President Trump's second term will shape the travel landscape in the U.S.
Florida Republican congresswoman Kat Cammack told stakeholders at a U.S. Travel Association meeting in November that Trump likes big, bold concepts. "There is no reward right now in this administration for small ideas," Cammack said.
We believe Cammack is correct, but it still begs the questions of whether we'll see big travel-related policy changes, and how Trump's initiatives might impact travel demand, both inbound and outbound.
In our Preview report
In this issue, we turn to both our reporters' knowledge and industry experts to show us the way. We hear from some of the top executives in the industry, who talk with editor in chief Arnie Weissmann about their expectations.
And our reporting team, which is on the front lines of newsgathering every day, look to top sources and the trends they've gleaned over the past 12 months to give a robust picture of what we may soon see.
Here are additional predictions: This will be a pivotal year for NDC. Generative AI will continue to influence the tech conversation (and advisor workflows). Travelers will still want Italy -- and Japan. Group demand will shine in accommodations. Cruising and tours will continue to show strength.
What we can learn from advisors
On where travel might be headed in 2025, it's helpful to turn to our 2024 Travel Industry Survey for insight.
First of all: travel abroad. Advisors have returned big-time to booking clients on international itineraries.
International travel represented a whopping 79% of advisors' booking share in 2024, and 2023 was basically the same. Unless something major happens to shatter our traveling confidence, we expect this trend to continue into 2025.
Let's talk about how specialization can impact 2025 trends: Advisors said overwhelmingly that family travel was a top agency specialization -- it only beat out high-end, luxury travel. So there you go: People will still be looking to reward themselves on travel and bring the gang with them.
In fact, third on the specialization list was adventure travel, and that makes sense for 2025, too. However you define it, travelers seem to be seeking out memorable, thrilling getaways (that can be luxurious and family-related).
What are concerns on our readers' radars? High costs, economic conditions, travel hassles and safety/security. But even so, 72% of our survey respondents said they had "positive expectations" for the future of the agency landscape, and 25% more were simply neutral.
That bodes pretty well for the new year.